Ask Dr. Dave

Dr. Dave is now taking questions at the New Rules Project, www.newrules.org.

• Index (Abridged list of all questions)

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Q. I'm worried. I'm seeing more and more stories about ballot box snafus and voter registration lawsuits. Is this election going to be fair? Could it wind up again being decided in the U.S. Supreme Court?

A. You're right to be worried. Many are. In July, eight Democratic members of the House sent a letter to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan requesting monitors to observe the November elections. In response, Republican Representative Steve Buyer offered an amendment to the 2005 foreign aid bill that prohibits U.N. involvement in U.S. elections. The amendment passed; 100 percent of Republicans voted in favor, 83 percent of Democrats voted against. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q.  George W. Bush’s web site insists that the economy is “strong and getting stronger,” that during his term unemployment has fallen, labor productivity has risen faster than it has in 50 years and, since August 2003, the economy has created 1.5 million jobs.  John Kerry’s web site, on the other hand, asserts that 1.8 million private sector jobs have been lost since 2001, the typical family’s income has fallen by $1,462 and the economic forecast is bleak.  Who’s right?    

A.  Both candidates are using accurate figures.  But as one would suspect, the data are culled to support their arguments.  To understand the economic situation we need to look at a variety of data. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Who is to blame for the flu vaccine crisis? Or should we view it as one of those unanticipated and unforeseen events that disrupt our day-to-day lives?

A. The current flu vaccine shortage did catch everyone by surprise, but the underlying problems that led to this crisis have been recognized for many years. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. The Nation recently declared the Justice Department is batting "0 for 5000" in convicting those arrested for terrorist activities. But the U.S. Department of Justice's web site states that 364 individuals have been criminally charged in terrorism investigations in the U.S., and 193 have been convicted or pleaded guilty, a success rate of over 50 percent. Who is right? Is there a way of monitoring how well we are doing in the fight against terrorism?

A. This is a complicated question to answer, for at least two reasons. After 9/11, the definition of "terrorism" has been greatly expanded to include crimes that were previously considered simply criminal activities. After 9/11, the federal government has focused on prevention and disruption and it is very difficult to measure its success in avoiding future terrorist attacks. Another complication is that there are many kinds of anti-terrorist initiatives. Each has its own measuring stick. To me there are at least four distinct situations in which we can evaluate results. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. In the first presidential debate, President Bush declared that we are about to deploy an anti-ballistic missile system. I thought that idea had proved unworkable and had long since been abandoned. What gives?

A.  The idea of building an effective system to intercept missiles has been around as long as long-range missiles have been around.  Enthusiasm for the concept has waxed and waned over the decades.  This is true in both political parties.  In 1976, for example, the anti-missile program was killed by then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld under President Ford.  Today Rumsfeld oversees and supports a much larger effort.  CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. We hear a lot about Medicare but relatively little about Medicaid, the federal health insurance program for low-income families. Yet Medicaid actually covers more people than Medicare. My state is currently cutting people from Medicaid, even while poverty levels increase. Is that legal? Also, I understand that President Bush advocates converting Medicaid into a block grant program, similar to what was done with Aid to Families of Dependent Children in 1996. What would that do?

A. Let's start with the basics. The Social Security Act of 1965 authorized Medicaid along with Medicare. Unlike Medicare, states administer their own Medicaid programs. They set benefits and determine eligibility levels, although these cannot fall below the federal minimum standards. No one who meets the eligibility requirements set by states can be denied coverage.

States establish benefit levels. The federal government provides matching funds. All states receive a minimum of a 50 percent federal match, that is, they get $1 of federal funding for $1 of state spending. States with per capita incomes below the national average receive higher matches. Mississippi, with the country's lowest per capita income, earns the highest match, 77 percent. That means that for every $1 that Mississippi invests in low-income health care coverage it receives from the federal government about $3.40. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Whatever happened to welfare reform? In 1996, after an extensive and heated debate, Congress voted to dramatically change our welfare system. Since then the number of people on welfare has plunged. Does that mean the reforms are working?

A. Let me start by saying I appreciate the way you phrase the question: does the dramatic reduction in the welfare rolls mean that welfare reform is working? Most people assume that the decline itself is sufficient proof that the changes have proven successful.

To properly answer you I need to back up for a moment (for those who want a much more detailed, heavily footnoted discussion go to Welfare in our Issues section). In talking about the welfare system we need to begin to defining the word “welfare” itself. When it comes to public policy, the word takes on a different meaning in different countries. In the United States, “welfare” refers only to programs for the poor (i.e. means-tested programs). In Europe it refers to all public assistance programs, the vast majority of which are universally available. In the United States the word “welfare” carries significant negative connotations. In Europe, at least until recently, it has not. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q.  My friend says he’s going to wait to vote until late in the day on November 2^nd.  By then the media will have started reporting exit poll results and he can decide whether or not to cast his vote for a third party candidate.   Is this a good idea?

A.  Putting aside the possibility that 10,000 other people in his state plan to do the same thing, your friend’s strategy is still questionable. As in 2000, this is likely to be a very close presidential election.  Four years ago, 537 votes decided the outcome in Florida, but other states were close as well:  7211 votes in New Hampshire, about 4000 in Iowa, 5700 in Wisconsin, 6765 in Oregon and just 366 votes in New Mexico. All of these numbers are well within the margin of error of even the most accurate poll, including exit polls. That’s a statistical term referring to the reliability of the poll numbers.  This is often reported in these words,  “accurate within plus or minus x percentage points”.  

Exit polls are questionnaires filled in by voters after leaving their polling places.  If an exit poll with a margin of error of two percentage points shows Candidate A leading Candidate B by 49-47 percent, Candidate A may have as little as 47 percent or as much as 51 percent of the vote.  Candidate B’s vote total will be between 49 and 53 percent.  Thus the poll, in effect, reflects the possibility that Candidate B could win by as much as six points or lose by two. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. The Supreme Court has allowed the words "under God" to continue to be included in the Pledge of Allegiance. Could you give me some background on the history of the Pledge itself? I understand the wording has changed several times. Also, do any other countries require students to pledge allegiance to their flag?

A. The Pledge of Allegiance has a fascinating and instructive history. In the late 19^th century millions of immigrants flooded onto our shores, to a country already suffering from widespread social unrest. Many believed we needed some unifying symbol that could tie together our increasingly polyglot and multicultural nation. Attention focused on the flag, an especially potent symbol given the then still-fresh memory of a catastrophic Civil War in which opposing armies fought under different flags. In 1885, BJ Cigrand, a schoolteacher, arranged for the pupils in the Fredonia, Wisconsin Public School to observe June 14 (the 108th anniversary of the official adoption of The Stars and Stripes by the Continental Congress) as 'Flag Birthday'. In numerous articles and public addresses over the following years, Cigrand continued to advocate the observance of June 14 as 'Flag Birthday', or 'Flag Day'. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Why are we stuck at 435 members of the US House? Are we less represented than the Founders intended?

A. Let’s be clear. The Founding Fathers did not create a democracy.  They worried that the direct involvement of the people in decision-making could result in political instability.  To deal with this problem, they chose to create a republican form of government.  The people (or at least some of them) would elect representatives to make decisions on their behalf.  CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Wasn’t the National Guard originally the state militia under state control?  Today there are over 100,000 National Guard currently deployed in military conflicts around the world.  Did the states have to give their permission?  What is the effect of this deployment on the ability of states to cope with domestic emergencies like hurricanes or earthquakes or terrorist attacks?

A. You’re right.  If I may completely misquote the Bible, in the beginning there was the local militia and only the local militia.  Prior to the Revolutionary War, each colony had an organized militia comprised of all able-bodied males of a certain age, to maintain order and protect colonists from Indian raids and other external security threats.  When the British attempted to disarm their New World colony during 1774-75, the population responded by forming private militias independent of the royal governor’s control.  These colonial militias composed the bulk of the armies that eventually won independence. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. The major broadcast networks were criticized for their very limited coverage of the Democratic National Convention.  Could they respond by giving much more airtime to the Republican National Convention? Wouldn’t this violate the government’s "equal time" requirements? 

A. You’re revealing your age by asking this question.  Although there was never, contrary to the conventional wisdom, a legal requirement for equal time per se, there was, for the first 60 years of radio and TV an obligation on broadcasters to offer a balance in their public affairs coverage.  That obligation ended in 1987. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Every time there is a terror alert, communities spend millions of dollars for additional security.  Who pays these costs?  Is the money taken from the budget for public services like police, fire and schools?

A. It depends. Here’s the background.  The Homeland Security Advisory System, established in March 2002, consists of five color-coded threat conditions.  Each represents an escalating risk of terrorist attacks.  Each level prescribes protective measures for communities.  Implementing these measures is mandatory for federal agencies  but compliance is voluntary for all other levels of government and the private sector. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Is it true that our voter turnout is much lower than that of other democracies?  Don’t Americans care enough to vote?

A.  Throughout our history, Americans have passionately defended and fought for the right to vote. But we exercise that right far less than citizens in other countries.  For example, from 1945 to 1998 voting turnout in the U.S. ranked 139^th of 171 countries. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

UPDATED

Q.  What is going on with federal sentencing?  First I heard that Congress had made it very difficult for judges to mete out lenient sentences. Now I hear that the federal courts have decided that federal sentencing guidelines may be unconstitutional because judges are imposing sentences that are too harsh. What gives?

A. Before 1986, federal judges were allowed a great deal of leeway in sentencing those convicted in their courts.  The assumption was the judge was the most competent and experienced person to take into account any mitigating circumstances involved. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

UPDATED

Q. I'm thinking of not voting in the next election except maybe for a third-party candidate. After all, there's not a dime's worth of difference between the Republican and Democratic Parties. Is there?

A. Your opinion is shared by millions and is reinforced daily by David Letterman, Jay Leno, patronizing political ads and banal 20 second new bites from candidates. Politicians do themselves no favors by chanting empty slogans like a mantra: "lower taxes", "more jobs", "a strong defense", "a safer environment". CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. My precinct will use electronic voting machines in November. Can I trust that my vote will be counted?  Is there anything I can do to ensure it will be?

A. Yours is a question very much on the minds of the 30 million or so Americans who will use electronic voting machines this fall. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Is it possible to hold elections where every vote counts and a vote for a minority party or candidate is not wasted? 

A. You bet.  And best of all, every strategy designed to enable racial minorities, minority viewpoints and minority parties a real voice in elections has been used at one time or another here in the good old US of A. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Several Catholic bishops have declared they will deny Communion to politicians who support policies that allow abortions.  Do they have the right to do this?  Why are they singling out pro-choice candidates? What about those who support preemptive wars or capital punishment?

A. There’s no question the bishops have the right to do this.  The devil, if I might use that term, is in the details. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. I've heard that there is a way in which a vote for a third party candidate like Ralph Nader would not take a vote away from the major party candidate, in this case John Kerry. It would work like this. Nader would direct any Nader elector to the electoral college to vote for John Kerry. That way voters could demonstrate their dissatisfaction with both political parties while at the same time not undermining John Kerry's candidacy.

Can this work?

A. Let me take the liberty of broadening the question. Let's say you are a conservative who prefers the Libertarian Party over the Republican Party or a liberal who prefers the Green Party over the Democratic Party. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Why are gasoline prices so high?

A. I could begin by saying that gasoline prices are not all that high by historical standards. In the 1950s a gallon cost the equivalent of $3 in today's dollars. The price in 1980 was almost as high. But everyone loathes the guy who says, "You think you have it bad. Why, when I was a kid…." So I'll move on. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. I've heard that the civilians involved in the abuse of prisoners at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq will not be prosecuted. Why are they treated differently from the soldiers they worked with?

A. Before the 1991 Gulf War private companies routinely provided logistic and transportation services for the military. Since the Gulf War private companies have been used periodically in covert military actions.

Today, in Afghanistan and Iraq we are seeing for the first time the use of private contractors side by side with soldiers, performing tasks central to the military mission.CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. Didn't the Supreme Court recently decide to allow gerrymandering? Doesn't it mean the incumbents can now redraw the political map to guarantee they remain in power?

A. Yes, and probably.

In April of 2004 the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a challenge to Pennsylvania's newly drawn congressional boundaries brought by Democrats who claimed that Republicans created districts to maximize GOP wins and eliminate as many Democratic incumbents as possible.
CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. On September 11 why didn't military fighter jets intercept the plane that crashed into the Pentagon? Wasn't there enough time for the jets to get there after the first hijacked plane hit the World Trade Center?

A. The 9/11 Commission is examining this issue. As Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball commented in Newsweek last fall "the commission has been highly interested in compiling a precise time line of the events of September 11 and examining closely how various branches of the U.S. government responded…" CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. I constantly see in the paper about how much money the candidates are raising and from whom. Do I have to be an investigative reporter to uncover this information or is it readily available to the general public?

A.The bad news is that the need for billions of dollars in campaign money is perverting and undermining the very nature of democracy. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that we cannot significantly curb this debilitating dynamic. The good news is that we can readily watch it happen. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. President Bush made two recess appointments of federal judges in early 2004. Democrats condemned him for bypassing the traditional Senate confirmation process. Republicans counter that recess appointments are a President's constitutional right, a common historical practice and that as recently as 2000 Democratic President Clinton exercised that right. What gives?

A. Bear with me. This gets a little tricky. As we all learned so long ago that by now most of us have forgotten, the Constitution gives the President the authority (Article II, Section 2) to nominate and "by and with the Advice of the Senate appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the Supreme Court and all other officers of the United States." CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. In early January Toby Ziegler, the most liberal member of the liberal Administration of TV President Josiah Bartlett on West Wing announced the impending bankruptcy of social security as the baby boomers retire. A few weeks later Alan Greenspan, one of the more conservative real-life Chairmen of the conservative Federal Reserve System told Congress the same thing. Does this mean liberals and conservatives agree on social security?

A. Social security is a complex issue. For a detailed discussion of its elements and the positions of both sides I encourage you click on our Issues and Allegations section.

The bad news is that on social security little bipartisanship exists today. The good news is that 20 years ago it did. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. I'm confused. The Republicans say that during George W. Bush's tenure several hundred thousand jobs have been created. The Democrats say several million jobs have been lost. Both say they are relying on government data. How can that be? Who is right?

A. They're both right, although one may be righter than the other. The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the primary source for employment information, actually generates job growth statistics in two very different ways. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. I know we don't elect a president directly. But I don't know why. And what the heck is the Electoral College? Does it lessen the value of my vote?

A. The 2000 election demonstrated quite clearly that we don't directly elect our presidents. Al Gore won the popular vote but George Bush won the electoral vote and the presidency. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. All this talk about the elections makes me eager to vote. I know I have to register but I don't know how or when to do so. Can I register the day of the general election?

A. I wish I could tell you that all it takes to exercise your franchise is to roll out of bed election day, head to the nearest voting station, show some identification that indicates you're a resident of that area and vote. And if you're lucky enough to be a resident of North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin or Maine that's indeed what you can do. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER

Q. More than 100 million people are going to cast ballots this November. Can one vote make a difference?

A. You betcha. American history is littered with examples of close elections, some of which changed the nation's future. CLICK HERE FOR ENTIRE ANSWER